Week 4 start-sit decisions: Follow your feelings, but don't ignore the facts either

ESPN, CBS Sports and Sports Illustrated published Week 4 fantasy football start-sit advice this week, pointing to major injuries and shifting workloads across NFL backfields and receiving corps. The shifts carry real stakes for fantasy managers setting lineups: New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart is out for the season with a knee injury, Miami running back De'Von Achane will miss the rest of the year, and Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence turned down a potential touchdown that would have boosted his season stats.

Lawrence knelt at the 1-yard line rather than score, with eight minutes remaining in Sunday's game against New England, according to ESPN. Had he continued into the end zone, ESPN said, he would be averaging 19.3 fantasy points through three games, nearing his career high of 19.9 from last season. Lawrence has thrown seven touchdown passes in three weeks with a career-high 67% completion percentage, a career-low 9% off-target rate and 17.3 fantasy points per game, ESPN reported. Sports Illustrated said Lawrence has scored 19-plus fantasy points in eight of his last nine games and expects a high-scoring Week 4 trip to Cincinnati, where ESPN put the projected game total at 51.5 with a 2.5-point spread.

CBS Sports said Jeremiyah Love delivered his first breakout game in Week 3, rushing 21 times for 90 yards against San Francisco and hauling in five receptions for 19 yards and a score among five targets while playing a season-high 64% of snaps. Love is a must-start against the Giants in Week 4, CBS said, because New York has already surrendered 13.6 or more PPR points to three running backs this season — Javonte Williams, Kyren Williams and Tony Pollard. ESPN reported a similar surge from Green Bay's Aaron Jones, 31, who was started in just 47% of leagues last week despite backup Jordan Mason's placement on injured reserve, then finished inside the top 15 at his position with 14.2 points; Jones has logged at least 22 touches and an 80% snap share in each of the past two weeks, a workload matched only by Jonathan Taylor and Ashton Jeanty, per ESPN. By contrast, ESPN said rookie Jadarian Price has scored fewer than eight fantasy points in three straight games, ranks 39th among backs overall, and has lost two fumbles in three outings — more, an ESPN editor noted, than Kenneth Walker III lost during his entire Seahawks career.

CBS Sports said Giants fans have reason to worry about receiver Malik Nabers after two poor outings, especially with Dart out for the season. Nabers caught just one pass for 1 yard on four targets in Week 2 while also managing a shoulder injury, then added five receptions for 26 yards on six targets in Week 3's poor weather with backup Jameis Winston at quarterback, CBS reported. CBS said Nabers remains worth starting against Arizona in Week 4, noting the Cardinals rank fourth in fantasy points allowed to receivers and have already given up 12.4 or more PPR points to four different wideouts this season.

ESPN reported a role reversal at receiver for Arizona, where Michael Wilson has outpaced higher-drafted teammate Marvin Harrison Jr. Since Week 11 of last season, only Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged more targets per game than Wilson's 10.8, while Harrison has totaled just 20 targets and averaged 4.43 fantasy points over that span, ESPN said. Last Sunday against San Francisco, Wilson drew 17 targets to Harrison's five, and Sports Illustrated said Wilson's 11 catches on those 17 targets produced 25.9 fantasy points. ESPN noted only Ja'Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown have posted multiple 17-target games over the past three seasons besides Wilson.

ESPN and Sports Illustrated both pointed to Carolina tight end Darren Waller as a favorable Week 4 option against Detroit. His snap share has climbed each week, from 34% to 43% to 49%, and he led the Panthers with eight targets last Sunday, catching five passes for 51 yards and 10.1 fantasy points, according to both outlets. The Lions have given up 100 total fantasy points to tight ends through three games, ESPN said, including five tight ends who cleared 13 points and six who scored a touchdown, making Waller — a free agent in many leagues, per Sports Illustrated — a strong streaming option.